Research cutoff: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at roughly 12:30 BST / 07:30 ET.
U.S. price cutoff: Monday, August 24 regular-session close.
Horizon: roughly the next 1–15 U.S. trading sessions.
Pre-open rule: extended-hours moves are context only. They do not count as confirmation for this screen.
Today's answer: no clean catch-up buy yet
Monday gave us something useful, even though it did not give us a trade.
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) is still the closest thing to a real catch-up transition. It remains ahead of Synopsys over the 3- and 5-session windows while still carrying a meaningful 20-session deficit. But Friday's promising turn did not earn the second day of confirmation we require: Cadence slipped 0.97% on Monday and only barely beat Synopsys on the day.
UPS gets a fresh reason to stay on the watchlist. The company announced more than $2 billion of ongoing investment across international, healthcare and supply-chain operations on Monday. That is strategically constructive, but the stock gained only 0.70% while FedEx jumped 2.76%. The relative gap therefore widened rather than closed.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) remains the most dramatic divergence on the board, but also the easiest one to misuse. Bitcoin exposure through IBIT rose another 2.20% Monday while RIOT gained only 0.86%. Over 20 sessions, Riot now trails IBIT by more than 30 percentage points. The gap is enormous, yet the stock still has not shown that buyers are willing to close it.
So the screen has three relationships worth tracking, but none qualifies as a clean pre-open catch-up entry today.
Candidate summary
| Rank | Candidate | Genuine relationship | What the screen sees | Status | What would change the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cadence (CDNS) | Direct EDA peer Synopsys (SNPS) | Positive 3/5-session relative performance, but Monday failed to extend Friday's turn; 20-session deficit remains | Closest transition watch | A regular-session hold/reclaim of roughly $316–$320, then stronger confirmation through $325–$328; peer earnings Wednesday complicate the pair |
| 2 | UPS | Direct parcel/logistics peer FedEx (FDX) | Large medium-window deficit, intact guidance and a fresh investment catalyst, but short-window relative performance turned negative again | Catalyst watch, not turned | Reclaim roughly $106–$108, then hold it into a second regular session while beating FDX |
| 3 | Riot Platforms (RIOT) | Bitcoin mining/treasury exposure versus IBIT / Bitcoin, now diluted by an expanding AI-data-center business | Huge 3/5/10/20-session lag, but RIOT itself still refuses to follow Bitcoin consistently | High-volatility divergence watch only | Close above roughly $21, then preferably reclaim $22.20 and hold while no longer losing ground to Bitcoin |
These are observation conditions, not market-open instructions.
Relative performance through Monday's close
The figures below are candidate price return minus benchmark price return, in percentage points. Negative means the candidate lagged. For UPS, the 10- and 20-session price-return gaps are modestly exaggerated by its August dividend; the economic conclusion is unchanged because the deficit remains large even on an adjusted basis.
| Candidate vs benchmark | 1 session | 3 sessions | 5 sessions | 10 sessions | 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDNS vs SNPS | -0.13 pp | +1.98 pp | +2.19 pp | -0.65 pp | -8.12 pp |
| UPS vs FDX | -2.06 pp | -1.86 pp | -0.09 pp | -4.67 pp | -16.54 pp |
| RIOT vs IBIT | -1.34 pp | -11.91 pp | -22.77 pp | -20.12 pp | -30.37 pp |
This table is why Cadence still ranks first even though Riot's headline gap is much larger.
Cadence has a smaller unresolved gap but an actual short-window transition. Riot has a spectacular gap with almost no evidence yet that the market wants to close it. UPS is somewhere in between: the business story is getting more constructive, but the stock is not behaving like a catch-up candidate yet.
Seven-session walk-forward: Monday validated the confirmation rule
I re-ran the screen over the prior seven completed U.S. sessions — August 14, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 and 24 — using only information that would have been available at each historical cutoff.
The useful lesson is not a new percentage score. It is that the existing filters prevented the screen from promoting several attractive-looking gaps too early.
- CDNS finally produced the right first-day shape on Friday: an absolute gain plus positive 1/3/5-session relative performance versus SNPS. Monday then failed to extend the move. Because the method requires a second regular session of confirmation, Friday never became a completed entry signal.
- UPS never reclaimed the $106–$108 repair area. Monday's 0.70% gain looked fine in isolation, but FedEx rose 2.76%, so the relative relationship actually deteriorated.
- RIOT gave us the cleanest example of why one-day strength is not enough. Thursday's 8.26% gain looked impressive, but Friday reversed 5.48% while IBIT surged 6.02%; Monday then lagged IBIT again.
- The prior peer-shock and post-invalidation rules also continue to keep broken or contaminated setups such as the recent cybersecurity laggards out of the active list.
The method therefore does not need another rule rewrite today. The current version is doing what it is supposed to do: stop a large arithmetic gap from becoming an automatic buy.
The active rules remain:
- Require a genuine economic, operating or underlying-asset relationship.
- Require multi-window divergence; one dramatic day is not enough.
- Reject company-specific bad news, guidance cuts, dilution stress, legal/product problems, balance-sheet trouble or structural competitive breaks that explain the lag.
- Require a credible catalyst or supportive estimate backdrop.
- Require a fresh 5- or 10-session gap; a large 20-session number alone can be stale.
- Require absolute stabilization or a reclaim by the candidate itself.
- Require a second regular session of confirmation after a reclaim.
- Keep failed setups in post-invalidation quarantine until broken support is rebuilt.
- Do not count relative strength created by a peer-specific collapse.
- If a direct peer has earnings within two sessions, require post-event confirmation or agreement from a second benchmark / the candidate's own price action.
I am deliberately not publishing a raw hit rate from such a short sample. The walk-forward is being used to expose failure modes, not manufacture a confidence badge.
1. Cadence: still the best shape, but Monday was not confirmation
Why the relationship is genuine
Cadence and Synopsys are the two dominant U.S.-listed electronic-design-automation vendors. They sell into overlapping semiconductor, systems and hyperscale customers and benefit from the same long-run drivers: increasingly complex chips, advanced-node adoption, multi-die systems, AI accelerators and rising design workloads.
That makes CDNS/SNPS one of the cleanest operating relationships in the screen.
The fundamental case remains intact
Cadence's second quarter was strong. Revenue reached $1.584 billion, up from $1.275 billion a year earlier; backlog hit a record $8.1 billion; core EDA revenue grew 18%; IP revenue grew more than 40%; and management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to roughly 19% growth while also lifting its non-GAAP EPS and operating-cash-flow outlook.
The sell side remains constructive as well. StockAnalysis, using S&P Global data, shows a Strong Buy consensus and an average 12-month target a little above $400. That is not a short-term timing signal, but it supports the idea that Cadence's recent relative lag is not broadly being treated as a broken franchise.
Monday checked the enthusiasm
Cadence closed Monday at $315.92, down 0.97%. Synopsys fell 0.84%. That left CDNS slightly weaker on the day, though its 3- and 5-session relative windows remained positive.
The important point is that Friday's +1.73% rebound did not immediately fail, but it also did not earn the second confirmation session.
Early Tuesday premarket indications had CDNS modestly higher around $317 while SNPS was up more than 1%. That is useful context, but premarket does not count under this method.
| Item | CDNS plan |
|---|---|
| Observation area | Roughly $316–$320 |
| First useful confirmation | Regular-session recovery/hold in that area while maintaining positive 3/5-session relative performance |
| Better trigger | Close through roughly $325–$328 with healthy EDA/technology breadth |
| Invalidation | Fresh close below roughly $311–$312 weakens the current transition structure |
| Likely catalysts | AI/EDA demand, estimate support, Cadence's Wednesday conference appearance, broader AI-capex validation |
| Main risks | Rich valuation, higher long-term yields, broad growth-stock de-rating, Synopsys earnings shock, AI-capex disappointment |
Wednesday is the problem with calling this clean today
Synopsys reports fiscal Q3 after the close on Wednesday, August 26. Cadence is also scheduled to present at the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on Wednesday.
That means the comparison peer itself is about to receive a major company-specific information shock. If SNPS gaps sharply lower on an isolated issue, CDNS could suddenly look brilliant in the relative table without Cadence actually improving. The existing peer-event rule says not to count that as clean confirmation.
Verdict: Cadence remains the closest transition, but Monday was not enough and Wednesday can rewrite the pair. I would rather miss the first few percent of a genuine move than call a Friday bounce a catch-up signal one day too early.
2. UPS: better business news, worse relative tape
Why the relationship is genuine
UPS and FedEx share the same parcel/logistics cycle: U.S. business shipping, e-commerce, international air freight, fuel, labor costs, network utilization and global trade.
This is not a loose sector comparison. It is a direct operating peer relationship.
The business backdrop improved again Monday
UPS's second-quarter report already gave the laggard thesis a fundamental foundation: consolidated revenue was $22.8 billion, adjusted EPS was $1.76, and management raised its full-year revenue outlook to about $91.2 billion, adjusted operating profit to about $8.65 billion and adjusted EPS to about $7.22.
Then on Monday UPS announced ongoing investments of more than $2 billion across its International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions businesses. The projects run through 2028 and include new or expanded facilities in the Philippines, Canada, Hong Kong and other markets, with a focus on higher-value international, healthcare and complex supply-chain work.
That is a credible strategic catalyst. It is also exactly the kind of news that makes a laggard worth keeping on a research list rather than dismissing automatically.
The analyst backdrop is mixed but not hostile. StockAnalysis currently shows a Buy consensus from 29 analysts, with recent calls ranging from BMO and Wells Fargo Holds to Buy ratings from Argus, Citi and Goldman Sachs.
Price still says “not yet”
UPS closed Monday at $102.72, up 0.70%. FedEx, however, jumped 2.76% to $334.05.
That is the opposite of the relative confirmation we want. UPS can have good company news and still not be a catch-up trade if the market keeps rewarding the peer more aggressively.
| Item | UPS plan |
|---|---|
| Observation area | Roughly $101–$103 |
| First useful repair | Reclaim roughly $106–$108 |
| Confirmation | Hold the repair into a second regular session while 3/5-session relative performance versus FDX turns positive |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below roughly $101 weakens the setup further |
| Likely catalysts | Execution on the international/healthcare investment program, evidence the post-Amazon network reset improves margins and volume quality, upward estimate revisions |
| Main risks | Weak parcel demand, restructuring charges, competition, fuel/labor costs, capital intensity and second-half execution |
One nuance in the table: UPS went ex-dividend in August, so raw price returns slightly overstate its longer-window underperformance. Using adjusted prices narrows the 20-session gap by roughly a point and a half, but it remains large enough that the conclusion is unchanged.
Verdict: the fundamental story is becoming more interesting. The relative tape is not. UPS stays on the watchlist, but the stock still has to earn the trade.
3. Riot: the gap is huge, but the benchmark relationship is changing
Bitcoin is still relevant — just not sufficient anymore
Riot remains meaningfully exposed to Bitcoin. In Q2 it generated $113.7 million of Bitcoin Mining revenue, produced 1,587 bitcoin and ended the quarter holding 11,380 bitcoin, alongside cash and other liquid assets.
But Riot is also rapidly becoming an AI/data-center developer. Its August 10 update included a 20-year, 191 MW data-center lease expected to generate about $9.1 billion of initial-term contract revenue, plus the existing AMD deployment. Riot reported $23.2 million of data-center revenue in Q2 and said it had contracted 241 MW of critical IT capacity across the two tenants.
That business mix change matters for this screen. IBIT is still a genuine driver, but it is becoming a less complete benchmark. A stock can stop tracking Bitcoin because the economics of the company itself are changing — not because a catch-up trade is waiting to happen.
Monday did not fix the divergence
RIOT closed Monday at $20.00, up 0.86%. IBIT rose 2.20%.
That leaves the relative deficit at roughly -11.9 points over three sessions, -22.8 over five and -30.4 over 20. Those numbers are eye-catching, but they are not bullish by themselves.
Tuesday premarket showed RIOT up around 1.7% while IBIT was up roughly 0.6% at the latest checks. That is the direction we would eventually want to see — but again, premarket does not count as confirmation.
The sell side is still very constructive: StockAnalysis shows 21 analysts with a Strong Buy consensus and an average target around $32.40, with recent target increases from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley after the data-center announcements.
Community sentiment is much more emotional. Reddit discussions around the Anthropic deal range from “to the moon” enthusiasm to frustration that the stock failed to hold its initial pop, while a newer thread focuses on financing timing and buildout risk. That split is actually useful: it is a reminder that a huge contract value and a huge relative gap do not remove execution risk.
| Item | RIOT plan |
|---|---|
| Observation area | Roughly $19–$20 |
| First useful repair | Regular-session close back above roughly $21 while no longer losing ground to Bitcoin / IBIT |
| Better confirmation | Reclaim Friday's $22.20 high, then hold into another session |
| Invalidation | Close below roughly $18.75 weakens the setup; a break of the recent $17.85–$17.90 low invalidates the current structure |
| Likely catalysts | Continued Bitcoin strength, AI/data-center lease execution, further Corsicana commercialization, financing progress |
| Main risks | Bitcoin reversal, mining economics, construction/capex execution, financing, high volatility, and a benchmark relationship that is becoming structurally less pure |
Verdict: Riot is still interesting research, but I would not call it a classic catch-up setup until its own price starts doing some of the work. Right now the market is telling us that “Bitcoin up” is not enough.
Near-misses and rejected setups
A useful catch-up screen needs to say what it rejected, otherwise it quietly becomes “buy whatever fell the most.”
| Setup | Why it is not promoted today |
|---|---|
| MRVL vs AVGO | Monday's semiconductor selloff created noise, but MRVL has already outperformed AVGO over parts of the shorter window and has its own near-term event risk. The divergence is not clean enough. |
| MU vs WDC | Both were hit hard in Monday's broad memory/storage selloff. MU is not a clean laggard versus WDC across the important short windows; this looks more like shared sector pressure than a delayed catch-up. |
| COHR vs LITE | Optical/AI names were broadly weak and COHR is still falling in absolute terms. No stabilization, no trade. |
| TER vs COHU | The relationship is genuine, but Teradyne is not currently the laggard we need; the recent short-window relationship is inconsistent with a clean catch-up thesis. |
| Recent cyber laggards | Still affected by broken price structures and peer-shock contamination. Relative arithmetic alone does not restore them to the active list. |
Market backdrop: Tuesday's green futures are a test, not confirmation
U.S. futures were higher Tuesday morning, led by technology and semiconductor names after Monday's Nasdaq decline. The market is looking ahead to Nvidia's earnings, inflation data and Jackson Hole, while elevated long-term yields remain a valuation risk for growth stocks.
That makes today's session unusually informative for Cadence and the other growth-sensitive laggards. If the market gets a broad risk-on bounce and a candidate still cannot improve against its peer, that is negative evidence. If it stabilizes and begins winning relative performance during the regular session, the catch-up thesis gets stronger.
I will not count the premarket bounce as that evidence.
What I would actually watch today
If I had to reduce the whole report to three screens:
- CDNS: can it recover the $316–$320 area and keep the 3/5-session edge over SNPS without relying on a Synopsys-specific drop?
- UPS: does the new $2B investment story finally produce relative strength against FDX, or does FedEx keep extending the lead?
- RIOT: if Bitcoin remains firm, can Riot finally close a regular session above $21 and stop leaking relative performance?
Until one of those happens, there is no clean catch-up buy today.
Sources
Price / relative-performance data
- Cadence price history — StockAnalysis / S&P Global
- Synopsys price history — StockAnalysis / S&P Global
- UPS price history — StockAnalysis / S&P Global
- FedEx price history — StockAnalysis / S&P Global
- Riot price history — StockAnalysis / S&P Global
- IBIT price history — StockAnalysis / S&P Global
Company / analyst sources
- Cadence Q2 2026 results
- Synopsys Q3 earnings date
- Cadence analyst consensus — StockAnalysis
- UPS Q2 2026 results
- UPS $2B investment announcement, Aug. 24
- UPS analyst consensus — StockAnalysis
- Riot Q2 2026 results and data-center lease details
- Riot analyst consensus — StockAnalysis
Market / community context
- Reuters: U.S. stock futures rise before Nvidia and inflation tests, Aug. 25
- RiotBlockchain community discussion on the AI lease
- Community discussion focused on Riot financing timing
This is market research, not individualized investment advice. Catch-up setups can remain dislocated much longer than expected, and a widening peer gap can be information rather than opportunity.