Monday Tech Forecast: ASML Leads, AMD and Alphabet Lag as TSMC Data Remains Unposted

Research cutoff: Monday, August 10, 2026 at approximately 08:45 BST / 03:45 ET.
Target: the Monday, August 10 U.S. regular session, measured from Friday's close to Monday's close.
Friday closing prices are the latest completed U.S. session. Premarket and futures indications can change materially before 9:30 a.m. ET.

The Monday setup is constructive for technology, but not clean enough for a blanket bullish call.

Friday's weak U.S. employment report pulled Treasury yields lower and helped the Nasdaq gain 1.3%. Asian technology shares followed that move overnight. By Monday morning, however, U.S. futures were only marginally positive: Dow futures were slightly negative while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher. Oil also moved back up, with Brent around $84 a barrel, because the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

That leaves the market caught between two forces: lower-rate relief for growth stocks and renewed inflation risk from energy.

The more useful information is inside the technology basket. Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC and ASML showed relative strength on Friday. AMD did not. Alphabet also fell despite a favorable Nasdaq tape. Those divergences still matter Monday morning.

There is also an unusual TSMC wrinkle. Its official calendar scheduled July monthly sales for 13:30 Taipei time on August 10, but when the official monthly-revenue page was checked after that scheduled time, the July field was still blank. No July sales number is used in this forecast. Until the company publishes it on an official source, the TSMC/ASML call carries unresolved event risk.

The strongest Monday calls are ASML higher, Alphabet lower and AMD lower. Nvidia and Broadcom retain positive secondary setups. TSMC is constructive, but the unposted July-sales figure prevents a stronger call.

What the old strategy got wrong

The retired model treated recent price action as if it were the main source of next-day information. That worked badly when the market changed regime around earnings, Fed decisions and large expectation resets.

Across the original seven-session audit, its active UP/DOWN calls were 31 correct out of 59 — 52.5%. Its Brier score on forecast correctness was 0.257. More importantly, a naive always-UP rule did much better during the same unusually bullish sample.

The biggest failure was event days. On July 30 and August 5, the old three-way model produced only 3 correct classifications out of 24. Across the other five sessions it produced 34/60. That gap is why earnings, macro releases and expectation shocks now receive their own treatment instead of being pushed through a generic momentum rule.

The replacement process asks a different question first:

What genuinely changed, what did investors expect before it changed, and did the price confirm or reject the new information?

Price remains useful, but mainly as evidence of market acceptance or rejection.

Candidate strategy and baseline audit

The older calibration window still provides the cleanest apples-to-apples comparison. Friday is shown separately as the first real forward check of the replacement process.

Strategy	Audited result	Decision
Always predict UP	54/76 material moves = 71.1% through Aug. 6	Useful baseline, zero selectivity
Repeat prior ticker direction	41/76 = 53.9%	Rejected
Follow prior QQQ direction	39/76 = 51.3%	Rejected
QQQ for megacaps / SMH for chip names	42/76 = 55.3%	Better, still too weak
Retired price-heavy model	31/59 active calls = 52.5%	Retired
News + analyst-revision standalone model	Not scored consistently across all dates	Confirmation signal only; timestamped historical revisions were incomplete
Community + options standalone model	Not scored consistently across all dates	Rejected as a standalone model; data coverage is uneven and sentiment is noisy
Fresh-event / expectation-gap gate	5/5 qualifying historical calls	Strongest historical candidate, but tiny sample
Selective ensemble: event + sector + relative strength + revisions + crowding	5/5 locked calls on Aug. 7	Best forward evidence so far; still only one session

Friday also shows why selectivity matters. Using the same material-move threshold, simply predicting UP would have been correct on 8 of 10 material watchlist moves. The selective process made only five directional calls — NVDA higher, AVGO higher, TSM higher, ASML higher and GOOGL lower — and all five were correct.

That is encouraging because precision improved while coverage fell. It is still nowhere near enough data to call the process validated.

Calibration versus holdout

The strongest historical feature family remains event / expectation gap.

Four older calibration cases were directionally correct:

MSFT, July 30 — higher: Azure results and guidance forced a large positive re-pricing; the regular close gained 15.51%.
META, July 30 — lower: weak free-cash-flow conversion and heavier spending produced a negative reset; the regular close fell 7.95%.
AAPL, July 31 — lower: softer forward guidance and supply constraints produced a large negative gap; the next regular close fell 7.35%.
AMZN, July 31 — higher: AWS acceleration created a strong positive earnings gap; the next regular close gained 15.32%.

The untouched holdout example was AMD on August 5. AMD beat published estimates and guided above consensus, but the after-hours reaction was negative because the price had already embedded a larger AI payoff. The following regular close fell 7.04%.

The first true forward session then arrived on August 7. Five selective calls were locked before the open and all five finished in the predicted direction. Their average signed close-to-close move in the forecast direction was about +1.5%.

Scoring status

Retired model active UP/DOWN accuracy: 31/59 = 52.5%
Retired model 60%+ bucket: 22/39 = 56.4%
Retired model 65%+ bucket: not applicable; the old confidence scale did not reach that level
Retired-model Brier score: 0.257
Replacement event-gate historical cases: 5/5, but too few observations for a credible calibration curve
Replacement first forward session: 5/5; average signed move about +1.5%
Replacement 60%+ and 65%+ completed forward buckets: not yet statistically reportable

The last point matters. One good Friday should change attention, not confidence math. Today's probabilities are deliberately capped well below the kind of number that would imply a mature predictive system.

The selected Monday process

The ranking is built from six layers, in this order:

Fresh catalyst / expectation gap. New information gets priority over old chart patterns.
Sector and macro regime. Semiconductor breadth, Nasdaq futures, Treasury yields and oil decide whether company signals have a tailwind or headwind.
Relative strength. A stock that falls when its sector rallies is more informative than a stock that merely follows the index.
Analyst and estimate revisions. Fresh changes matter more than stale price targets.
Crowd emotion and positioning. Public discussion is used to identify euphoria, frustration, fear and crowding — not as a simple bullish/bearish vote.
Options only when verifiable. Friday's broad U.S. options market showed increasingly bullish call demand and very low skew, which supports risk appetite but also warns that optimism is becoming crowded. A consistent, timestamped single-stock options dataset was not available across all 12 names, so no ticker-level put/call figure is invented.

Monday forecast table

Ticker	Friday close	UP	DOWN	Expected Monday range	Conviction	Dominant signal
AAPL	$313.33	52%	48%	-1.5% to +1.7%	Low	Post-earnings repair, but no fresh catalyst strong enough to separate it from the index
NVDA	$223.96	59%	41%	-2.6% to +3.2%	Medium	Chip leadership, SpaceX endorsement and broad AI demand; offset by extension and crowded bullish positioning
MSFT	$499.99	49%	51%	-2.5% to +2.7%	Low	Excellent Azure economics, but Friday relative strength stalled after a historic re-pricing
AMZN	$274.48	55%	45%	-2.5% to +2.8%	Medium-low	AWS acceleration remains supportive; heavy capex and post-gap digestion limit conviction
TSLA	$328.58	53%	47%	-3.2% to +3.7%	Low	Strong Friday rebound versus weak one-month structure and highly emotional retail positioning
GOOGL	$354.30	39%	61%	-3.2% to +2.5%	Higher	Fell in a strong Nasdaq tape; AI capex, financing and leadership uncertainty remain unresolved
META	$592.10	47%	53%	-2.5% to +2.2%	Low	Strong ads business versus high infrastructure spend and weaker cash conversion
AVGO	$427.76	59%	41%	-2.8% to +3.4%	Medium	Strong semiconductor relative strength and hyperscaler exposure; main risk is crowding
AMD	$483.36	39%	61%	-5.0% to +4.5%	Higher	Earnings expectation gap remains damaged and Friday lagged a strong chip tape
ORCL	$147.02	55%	45%	-4.0% to +4.5%	Medium-low	Friday rebound and AI backlog versus debt, negative free cash flow and financing risk
TSM	$420.04	56%	44%	-3.5% to +4.5%	Medium / event risk	Strong foundry demand and fresh Sony partnership report, but July sales remained unposted at the cutoff
ASML	$1,740.99	61%	39%	-3.2% to +4.0%	Higher	Strong relative strength, improving analyst targets and semiconductor-capex leadership

No call reaches 65%. The replacement process has not earned that level of confidence yet.

1. ASML — higher

ASML has the best alignment of business evidence, sector confirmation and price behavior in the watchlist.

The shares gained about 2.15% Friday, and the relative-strength line has been improving. ASML has already reported earnings, so Monday does not carry the same company-specific binary earnings risk as several other growth names. Investor's Business Daily highlighted ASML over the weekend among stocks approaching buy points without immediate earnings risk.

The analyst trend is also constructive rather than stale consensus wallpaper. After ASML's July results, JPMorgan raised its target from $2,200 to $2,400, Wells Fargo from $2,200 to $2,500, RBC from $2,000 to $2,100, and Bernstein later lifted its target further. Those revisions matter because they followed fresh capacity and demand information.

The macro setup is mixed but manageable. Lower Treasury yields after Friday's jobs shock are supportive for long-duration technology. Higher oil Monday morning is the counterweight.

TSMC's unposted July-sales number is the main immediate risk. ASML is not a direct one-day proxy for TSMC revenue, but a strong or weak foundry demand signal can change expectations for advanced-node capacity and equipment spending quickly.

Crowd read: The tone around ASML is optimistic but less euphoric than the largest U.S. AI names. The recurring fear is China/export restrictions and whether domestic Chinese lithography can erode DUV demand. That skepticism prevents the setup from becoming a pure FOMO trade.

Supporting evidence: Friday relative strength; broad semiconductor leadership; upward analyst revisions; lower yields; no immediate ASML earnings event.

Contradictions: rising oil; export-control risk; a fast recent move; TSMC's missing July data.

Failure condition: a decisive loss of roughly $1,705–$1,720, especially if semiconductor breadth turns negative at the same time.

2. Alphabet — lower

Alphabet has the cleanest negative divergence in the megacap group.

Friday gave long-duration growth stocks almost the ideal short-term backdrop: weaker employment, lower yields and a rising Nasdaq. GOOGL still fell about 0.96%. That is more informative than an ordinary down day because the stock rejected a favorable macro environment.

The operating business is not the problem. Search remains resilient and Google Cloud is growing rapidly. The issue is what investors must pay — in cash and capital intensity — to protect that growth. Alphabet raised 2026 capex guidance to roughly $195 billion–$205 billion, and the stock has remained sensitive to free-cash-flow pressure.

A fresh bond-financing plan of roughly $20 billion–$25 billion keeps that debate visible. For Alphabet, borrowing is not a solvency problem; it is an expectations problem. Investors want proof that the incremental AI infrastructure earns returns quickly enough to justify the spend.

Recent AI leadership changes add another source of uncertainty. The stock sold off after a reshuffle that expanded Demis Hassabis's scientific role while other senior AI leadership changed.

Crowd read: Retail dip-buying exists, but it has not yet translated into relative-price confirmation. That makes the emotion less useful as a bullish signal. If buyers are enthusiastic and the stock still cannot outperform on a favorable index day, the divergence deserves respect.

Supporting evidence for DOWN: Friday underperformance versus Nasdaq; capex/free-cash-flow pressure; new financing; leadership uncertainty.

Contradictions: strong Search and Cloud fundamentals; lower yields; any relief from capex concerns could produce a sharp mean-reversion bounce.

Failure condition: a sustained reclaim of roughly $360–$364 while QQQ remains firm.

3. AMD — lower

AMD remains the most important negative divergence in semiconductors.

The quarter itself was strong. Data Center revenue reached roughly $6.72 billion, more than doubling year over year, and AMD guided third-quarter revenue to about $13 billion, above published consensus. Yet shares fell sharply because the stock had already priced in an even larger AI payoff.

That expectation gap has not repaired.

On Friday, Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC and ASML rose while AMD fell about 1.21%. The broad market was favorable, yields were lower, and semiconductor participation was positive. AMD still could not join the move.

The new Taalas acquisition adds a plausible long-term inference strategy, but the immediate share-price reaction did not provide confirmation. Long-term strategic merit and next-session direction are different questions.

Public AMD discussion captures the current psychology well: frustration mixed with conviction. Friday's r/AMD_Stock discussion described a market drifting higher without strong AMD conviction and concern that the post-earnings chart had not finished bottoming. That is not capitulation. Holders still believe in the long-term AI story, but failed rallies are producing fatigue rather than panic.

Supporting evidence for DOWN: negative earnings expectation gap; Friday sector underperformance; high embedded expectations; competitive pressure from Nvidia; advanced-node/CoWoS supply constraints.

Contradictions: very strong Data Center growth; broad chip leadership; a strong TSMC demand print could lift the entire complex.

Failure condition: AMD reclaims $496–$500 and holds above that zone while SMH remains strong.

Nvidia and Broadcom — positive, but increasingly crowded

Nvidia remains the higher-quality continuation call of the two because the market continues to reward proven AI winners. SpaceX's decision to use Nvidia GPUs exclusively reinforced the platform advantage and contributed to Nvidia's gain while AMD sold off.

There is also a positioning warning. Friday's broader options market showed unusually strong appetite for upside calls, with Cboe skew falling to its lowest level since late 2024. For Nvidia specifically, options ahead of the August 26 earnings report imply a large move. That is not bearish by itself, but it means bullish news is increasingly expected rather than surprising.

Broadcom has a similar setup: excellent AI networking and custom-silicon exposure, strong relative strength and a supportive semiconductor regime. The difference is crowding. Broadcom has already moved quickly, so a controlled consolidation is healthier than a vertical opening spike.

For both names, sector confirmation matters more than the first 15 minutes. A higher open followed by weak SMH breadth would reduce the value of the bullish signal.

TSMC — constructive, but the official July number is still missing

TSMC's official financial calendar scheduled July monthly sales for 13:30 Taipei time Monday. At the 08:45 BST research cutoff — more than two hours after that scheduled time — the company's official 2026 monthly-revenue page still showed the July row blank.

That is not permission to use an unofficial number. The forecast uses the last verified official figures:

June revenue: NT$442.68 billion, +67.9% year over year;
January–June revenue: NT$2.40448 trillion, +35.6% year over year;
Q2 revenue: NT$1.27038 trillion, +36.0% year over year;
Q2 gross margin: 67.7%.

A new Reuters report Monday added a smaller positive strategic catalyst: Sony and TSMC are reportedly considering roughly $6.3 billion of investment in a joint venture for next-generation image sensors, with commercial production potentially beginning in 2029. The companies had already disclosed a preliminary partnership in May, so the fresh information is primarily the reported scale and ownership structure rather than a completely new relationship.

That helps the long-term strategic picture, but it is not a substitute for the missing July sales number.

Read: constructive, but event-limited. If official July revenue appears before the U.S. open, it should override this pre-release weighting.

The low-conviction names

AAPL is repairing its post-earnings decline, but there is no strong new catalyst at the cutoff. The setup is too close to the index to deserve a directional bet.

MSFT remains one of the strongest businesses in the group, but Friday's near-flat close after the Nasdaq's 1.3% gain is a short-term yellow flag after a historic post-earnings re-pricing. Strong Azure economics and stretched expectations cancel each other out.

AMZN still has AWS as a strong fundamental catalyst, but the post-earnings gap is being digested. The stock needs another estimate revision or clean relative-strength break to become a high-conviction call.

TSLA bounced strongly Friday, but the one-month structure remains weak and public discussion remains highly emotional. Tesla can move several percent on autonomy, Musk or China headlines without a clean pre-open signal, so forcing precision here would be false confidence.

META retains strong advertising economics, but AI infrastructure spending and cash conversion remain the counterweight. The current tape does not provide enough divergence for a strong call.

ORCL produced a strong Friday rebound, but its AI backlog comes with debt, lease commitments and negative free-cash-flow risk. The price can continue higher, but the financing debate keeps conviction below the top group.

What can invalidate Monday's forecast

1. TSMC publishes July sales before the U.S. open

The official number should immediately replace the event-risk assumption. A clear acceleration would strengthen TSM, ASML, NVDA and AVGO and could weaken the AMD bearish call if AMD finally participates. A material disappointment would pressure the entire semiconductor complex.

2. Oil makes another sharp move

Brent was back around $84 Monday morning as the Hormuz situation remained unresolved. A stronger oil spike can lift inflation expectations and Treasury yields, directly attacking Friday's rate-relief trade.

3. Futures breadth deteriorates

Nasdaq futures were only modestly positive at the cutoff. If the index turns lower and semiconductor futures/ETFs weaken together, ASML/NVDA/AVGO bullish calls lose sector confirmation.

4. Wednesday CPI positioning arrives early

U.S. inflation data are due Wednesday. Investors have reduced the probability of a September Fed hike after the weak jobs report, so a market that starts fearing an upside CPI surprise could push yields higher before the data are released.

5. Geopolitical headlines

The Strait of Hormuz remains the fastest macro route from a headline to oil, inflation expectations and growth-stock valuation.

Transparent historical audit

The retired seven-session ticker record remains poor enough that it should stay visible:

Ticker	Old model record
AAPL	2/7
NVDA	4/7
MSFT	4/7
AMZN	3/7
TSLA	3/7
GOOGL	3/7
META	3/7
AVGO	4/7
AMD	2/7
ORCL	3/7
TSM	3/7
ASML	3/7

The replacement process is deliberately narrower. It does not need to predict every name well every day. Its job is to identify the few cases where catalyst, expectations, sector behavior and price reaction line up strongly enough to justify a directional call.

For Monday, that leaves three primary views:

ASML higher — the strongest positive alignment.
GOOGL lower — the clearest megacap negative divergence.
AMD lower — the clearest semiconductor negative divergence.

TSMC is the event pivot. Nvidia and Broadcom are the secondary bullish names if semiconductor breadth survives the open.

Bottom line

Monday is not a simple continuation of Friday's tech rally.

The broad macro backdrop is still supportive because weak employment reduced immediate rate pressure, but higher oil and the unresolved Hormuz situation have reintroduced inflation risk. At the same time, bullish options positioning shows that investors are already leaning toward more upside, which makes selective relative strength more important than chasing the index.

ASML remains the cleanest long-side setup. Alphabet and AMD remain the cleanest negative divergences. Nvidia and Broadcom are constructive but crowded. TSMC's underlying demand picture is strong, yet the scheduled July-sales figure had still not appeared on the official monthly-revenue page at the research cutoff, so its Monday call stays deliberately below the top conviction tier.

The most valuable information after the open will be whether these relative leaders and laggards keep behaving differently once oil, yields and the first hour of semiconductor breadth are visible.

Educational disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment research, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Short-horizon forecasts are highly uncertain, premarket indications can reverse, and economic or geopolitical events can move prices beyond the ranges discussed.

Sources

Written and reviewed by /lico

Just writing down my thoughts, interests, and the things I learn along the way.